Climate change and dengue: a critical and systematic review of quantitative modelling approaches
نویسندگان
چکیده
BACKGROUND Many studies have found associations between climatic conditions and dengue transmission. However, there is a debate about the future impacts of climate change on dengue transmission. This paper reviewed epidemiological evidence on the relationship between climate and dengue with a focus on quantitative methods for assessing the potential impacts of climate change on global dengue transmission. METHODS A literature search was conducted in October 2012, using the electronic databases PubMed, Scopus, ScienceDirect, ProQuest, and Web of Science. The search focused on peer-reviewed journal articles published in English from January 1991 through October 2012. RESULTS Sixteen studies met the inclusion criteria and most studies showed that the transmission of dengue is highly sensitive to climatic conditions, especially temperature, rainfall and relative humidity. Studies on the potential impacts of climate change on dengue indicate increased climatic suitability for transmission and an expansion of the geographic regions at risk during this century. A variety of quantitative modelling approaches were used in the studies. Several key methodological issues and current knowledge gaps were identified through this review. CONCLUSIONS It is important to assemble spatio-temporal patterns of dengue transmission compatible with long-term data on climate and other socio-ecological changes and this would advance projections of dengue risks associated with climate change.
منابع مشابه
Modelling potential impacts of climate change on the oak spatial distribution (Case study: Ilam and Lorestan provinces)
Examining the effects of climate change on the oak spatial distribution, as the main species of Zagros forests and its ecological and economic values is of significant importance. Here, we used species distribution models for simulating current climatic suitability of oak and its potential changes in 2050 and 2070. For this purpose, five regression-based and machine learning approaches, four cl...
متن کاملAgricultural crop growth modelling: a tool for dealing with the threat of climate change affecting food security (case study for greenhouse tomato)
Climate change and essentiality of the food security have motived scientists to try innovative approaches, among which, crop growth models can help to predict crop yield. In order to simulate tomato (Solanum lycopersicum) growth, phenological characteristics of a short-life variety of tomato were assessed. Phenologic characteristics included leaf area index (LAI), specific leaf area (S...
متن کاملIdentifying Potential Climatic Refugia to Protect Populations of Goitered Gazelle (Gazelle subgutturosa) in the Face of Climate Change (A case Study: Central Iran)
Currently, conservation planning based on the future distribution of species is among the most important adaptive conservation approaches to reduce the negative impacts of climate change on species. In this study, by adapting an ensemble modelling approach, scenarios of RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 and five global circulation models, the distribution of Goitered gazelle (Gazellea subgutturosa) under c...
متن کاملClimate Changes and Vector-Borne Diseases With an Emphasis on Parasitic Diseases: A Narrative Review
Background and Objectives: The issue of climate change has currently become a critical concern for the global community as it affects the transmission and spread of a wide range of diseases. This study aims to examine the literature and scientific evidence concerning the impact of climate change on vector-borne diseases. Methods: In this review research, a comprehensive search and review of te...
متن کامل